Catching Up or Falling Behind

Catching Up or Falling Behind

SHUHE LI - City University of Hong Kong - Department of Economics & Finance and CHANGZHEN GONG - City University of Hong Kong - Department of Economics & Finance

Abstract:

This paper addresses the question of why some followers catch up to the leader while others fall behind. We first summarize a set of stylized facts of the world economic growth and development. Then a leader-follower model is built to match these facts. A key hypothesis is that how fast a follower can learn from the leader depends on its own knowledge of capital stock, the distance from the leader's technology frontier, and the efforts it puts into learning as well as its learning capability. The results match the stylized facts very well. Conditional convergence of output per capita across countries can be derived from our model. We have demonstrated that the growth rate of the follower tends to converge to the leader's, and hence, given a leader, all economies tend to converge to the same growth rate. A follower would catch up (fall behind) the leader if its learning capability is above (below) a critical level.

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